一 政策(ce)是(shi)促進生(sheng)物柴油產業發展的(de).大(da)因(yin)素

生(sheng)(sheng)物(wu)(wu)柴(chai)(chai)(chai)(chai)(chai)油(you)主要(yao)以植物(wu)(wu)油(you)為(wei)原料，生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)成本高，價(jia)格(ge)通常為(wei)普通柴(chai)(chai)(chai)(chai)(chai)油(you)的(de)1.5倍，單純(chun)依靠市(shi)場化普及(ji)難(nan)以形成規模需求，目前(qian)產(chan)銷(xiao)國(guo)主要(yao)是(shi)依靠政策支持來推動生(sheng)(sheng)物(wu)(wu)柴(chai)(chai)(chai)(chai)(chai)油(you)產(chan)業(ye)(ye)發展。一是(shi)規定(ding)(ding)生(sheng)(sheng)物(wu)(wu)柴(chai)(chai)(chai)(chai)(chai)油(you).低(di)(di)使用(yong)量。美國(guo)國(guo)家環境(jing)保護局每年制定(ding)(ding)生(sheng)(sheng)物(wu)(wu)柴(chai)(chai)(chai)(chai)(chai)油(you).低(di)(di)摻(chan)(chan)混(hun)比(bi)例(li)，并要(yao)求煉油(you)廠和柴(chai)(chai)(chai)(chai)(chai)油(you)進(jin)口商(shang)完(wan)成市(shi)場義務。印度尼西(xi)亞、巴西(xi)等國(guo)家通過(guo)確定(ding)(ding)生(sheng)(sheng)物(wu)(wu)柴(chai)(chai)(chai)(chai)(chai)油(you)低(di)(di)摻(chan)(chan)混(hun)比(bi)例(li)來強制消費(fei)，對(dui)未(wei)按(an)照(zhao)規定(ding)(ding)比(bi)例(li)摻(chan)(chan)混(hun)的(de)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)進(jin)行處(chu)罰。二(er)是(shi)對(dui)生(sheng)(sheng)物(wu)(wu)柴(chai)(chai)(chai)(chai)(chai)油(you)行業(ye)(ye)補(bu)貼(tie)。政府補(bu)貼(tie)是(shi)降低(di)(di)生(sheng)(sheng)物(wu)(wu)柴(chai)(chai)(chai)(chai)(chai)油(you)成本，刺激生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)的(de)重(zhong)要(yao)因素(su)。美國(guo)生(sheng)(sheng)物(wu)(wu)柴(chai)(chai)(chai)(chai)(chai)油(you)摻(chan)(chan)混(hun)商(shang)可獲(huo)得每加侖（約3.79Ｌ）１美元的(de)稅收抵(di)免，可持續航空燃料（ＳＡＦ）生(sheng)產商(shang)稅收抵免為每(mei)加侖1.25～1.75美元。印(yin)度(du)尼西(xi)亞設立專項基金，根(gen)據生(sheng)物(wu)柴(chai)油與柴(chai)油價差進行適(shi)度(du)補貼等(deng)。政策補貼有效降低了企業生產成本，促進了生物柴油行業產能擴張和產業快速發展。

二 市場規模及加工利潤是促進生物柴油產業發展的有益補充

一是(shi)柴(chai)(chai)(chai)油(you)的(de)消(xiao)費需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)。生(sheng)物(wu)柴(chai)(chai)(chai)油(you)主(zhu)要(yao)是(shi)用于(yu)(yu)摻(chan)混(hun)柴(chai)(chai)(chai)油(you)，當摻(chan)混(hun)比例固定時(shi)，柴(chai)(chai)(chai)油(you)的(de)消(xiao)費量直(zhi)接決(jue)定著生(sheng)物(wu)柴(chai)(chai)(chai)油(you)的(de)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)量。２０２０—２０２２年新冠(guan)肺(fei)炎疫情期間，經濟增(zeng)速放緩，加上(shang)各國(guo)實施疫情防(fang)控，物(wu)流與運輸行(xing)業受到(dao)嚴重沖擊，各國(guo)柴(chai)(chai)(chai)油(you)消(xiao)費量下(xia)降，抑(yi)制了生(sheng)物(wu)柴(chai)(chai)(chai)油(you)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)。二是(shi)生(sheng)物(wu)柴(chai)(chai)(chai)油(you)與柴(chai)(chai)(chai)油(you)價(jia)差影響利潤。由(you)于(yu)(yu)生(sheng)物(wu)柴(chai)(chai)(chai)油(you)價(jia)格長期高(gao)(gao)(gao)于(yu)(yu)柴(chai)(chai)(chai)油(you)，通(tong)常情況(kuang)下(xia)，生(sheng)物(wu)柴(chai)(chai)(chai)油(you)的(de)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)上(shang)限(xian)為政策規(gui)定的(de)低摻(chan)混(hun)比例，但當..能(neng)源價(jia)格高(gao)(gao)(gao)企，柴(chai)(chai)(chai)油(you)價(jia)格高(gao)(gao)(gao)于(yu)(yu)生(sheng)物(wu)柴(chai)(chai)(chai)油(you)價(jia)格時(shi)，市場對生(sheng)物(wu)柴(chai)(chai)(chai)油(you)的(de)政策外需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)將明顯增(zeng)加。如2014年、2018—2019年期間，原(yuan)油(you)價(jia)格大(da)幅(fu)上(shang)漲，美國(guo)柴(chai)(chai)(chai)油(you)價(jia)格超(chao)過(guo)生(sheng)物(wu)柴(chai)(chai)(chai)油(you)，拉(la)動了生(sheng)物(wu)柴(chai)(chai)(chai)油(you)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)增(zeng)加。

三 原料來源的穩定性和成本變化是生物柴油產業發展的制約因素

一是(shi)原(yuan)料(liao)(liao)(liao)(liao)來(lai)(lai)源的(de)穩(wen)定性。生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)物(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)柴(chai)(chai)油(you)(you)(you)的(de)原(yuan)料(liao)(liao)(liao)(liao)主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)要包括動(dong)植物(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)油(you)(you)(you)脂、廢棄(qi)油(you)(you)(you)脂等，充足的(de)原(yuan)料(liao)(liao)(liao)(liao)供給是(shi)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)物(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)柴(chai)(chai)油(you)(you)(you)行業發展的(de)前(qian)提，目前(qian)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)物(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)柴(chai)(chai)油(you)(you)(you)主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)產(chan)國(guo)均為(wei)(wei)(wei)油(you)(you)(you)脂油(you)(you)(you)料(liao)(liao)(liao)(liao)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)大(da)國(guo)，如(ru)：美國(guo)、巴西、阿(a)根(gen)廷(ting)為(wei)(wei)(wei)大(da)豆主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)產(chan)國(guo)，生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)物(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)柴(chai)(chai)油(you)(you)(you)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)原(yuan)料(liao)(liao)(liao)(liao)以(yi)大(da)豆油(you)(you)(you)為(wei)(wei)(wei)主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)；歐盟國(guo)家為(wei)(wei)(wei)油(you)(you)(you)菜(cai)籽主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)產(chan)國(guo)，生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)物(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)柴(chai)(chai)油(you)(you)(you)原(yuan)料(liao)(liao)(liao)(liao)以(yi)菜(cai)籽油(you)(you)(you)為(wei)(wei)(wei)主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)；印度尼西亞、馬(ma)來(lai)(lai)西亞為(wei)(wei)(wei)棕(zong)櫚油(you)(you)(you)主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)產(chan)國(guo)，生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)物(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)柴(chai)(chai)油(you)(you)(you)原(yuan)料(liao)(liao)(liao)(liao)以(yi)棕(zong)櫚油(you)(you)(you)為(wei)(wei)(wei)主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)；中國(guo)為(wei)(wei)(wei)地溝油(you)(you)(you)等廢棄(qi)油(you)(you)(you)脂生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)大(da)國(guo)，生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)物(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)柴(chai)(chai)油(you)(you)(you)原(yuan)料(liao)(liao)(liao)(liao)以(yi)廢棄(qi)油(you)(you)(you)脂為(wei)(wei)(wei)主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)。二是(shi)原(yuan)料(liao)(liao)(liao)(liao)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)變化。資料(liao)(liao)(liao)(liao)顯示，原(yuan)料(liao)(liao)(liao)(liao)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)占(zhan)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)物(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)柴(chai)(chai)油(you)(you)(you)總(zong)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)的(de)九成(cheng)(cheng)左右，當(dang)原(yuan)料(liao)(liao)(liao)(liao)供給趨緊、價(jia)格上漲時，生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)物(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)柴(chai)(chai)油(you)(you)(you)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)將(jiang)受(shou)到明(ming)顯抑制。如(ru)阿(a)根(gen)廷(ting)受(shou)歐盟、美國(guo)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)物(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)柴(chai)(chai)油(you)(you)(you)進(jin)口制裁，近年(nian)來(lai)(lai)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)物(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)柴(chai)(chai)油(you)(you)(you)產(chan)量(liang)下降(jiang)，而２０２２年(nian)該(gai)國(guo)大(da)豆產(chan)量(liang)大(da)幅減產(chan)后(hou)，大(da)豆油(you)(you)(you)價(jia)格上漲，進(jin)一步制約了阿(a)根(gen)廷(ting)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)物(wu)(wu)(wu)(wu)柴(chai)(chai)油(you)(you)(you)的(de)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)。

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