眾所(suo)周(zhou)知(zhi)，原(yuan)油(you)和(he)煤炭是(shi)不可(ke)再生能源，由于資(zi)源消耗和(he)環保的問題，各國(guo)相繼提出了各種可(ke)再生能源的政策，其中就(jiu)包括(kuo)利(li)用油(you)脂(zhi)制造(zao)生物柴(chai)油(you)作為可(ke)再生燃料(liao)。由于全球(qiu)各國(guo)地理位置和(he)各自資(zi)源優勢不同，制作生物柴(chai)油(you)的油(you)脂(zhi)原(yuan)料(liao)也(ye)不同，美(mei)國(guo)以(yi)豆油(you)為主，歐洲是(shi)菜(cai)籽油(you)為主，而東南亞(ya)由于盛產棕櫚油(you)，則以(yi)棕櫚油(you)制造(zao)生物菜(cai)油(you)。

中國由(you)于人口眾多，油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)脂(zhi)(zhi)消耗(hao)量大(da)，油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)脂(zhi)(zhi)主(zhu)(zhu)要(yao)用(yong)于食用(yong)和(he)工業，生(sheng)(sheng)物(wu)柴(chai)油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)主(zhu)(zhu)要(yao)來(lai)自廢棄油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)和(he)木本油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)。據了解(jie)，美(mei)國用(yong)于生(sheng)(sheng)物(wu)柴(chai)油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)的豆油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)占總(zong)產(chan)(chan)(chan)量的27%，棕(zong)櫚油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)大(da)國馬(ma)來(lai)西亞和(he)印尼制造生(sheng)(sheng)物(wu)柴(chai)油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)的棕(zong)櫚油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)約占總(zong)產(chan)(chan)(chan)量10%，大(da)約每年(nian)500萬(wan)噸左右，生(sheng)(sheng)物(wu)柴(chai)油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)已經成(cheng)(cheng)為油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)脂(zhi)(zhi)消耗(hao)的重要(yao)需(xu)求方，是當前油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)脂(zhi)(zhi)供求關系中無(wu)法忽視的環節。從(cong)現有人類使(shi)用(yong)能(neng)源的結構(gou)看，主(zhu)(zhu)要(yao)是煤炭和(he)石(shi)油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)，生(sheng)(sheng)物(wu)柴(chai)油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)作(zuo)為可再生(sheng)(sheng)能(neng)源的占比非常(chang)低，而且風能(neng)、太陽能(neng)、水力發電能(neng)等(deng)也是可再生(sheng)(sheng)能(neng)源，生(sheng)(sheng)物(wu)柴(chai)油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)所占份額少，在(zai)能(neng)源消費(fei)中影(ying)響低，屬于從(cong)屬位置。能(neng)源的價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)波動會影(ying)響生(sheng)(sheng)物(wu)柴(chai)油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)的價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)，如原油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)會影(ying)響生(sheng)(sheng)物(wu)柴(chai)油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)的價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)和(he)產(chan)(chan)(chan)量，反之則不(bu)成(cheng)(cheng)立。

還有(you)(you)就(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)是(shi)油(you)(you)脂作為生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)物(wu)(wu)柴(chai)油(you)(you)有(you)(you)利有(you)(you)弊，首先就(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)是(shi)消耗(hao)導致農產(chan)(chan)品(pin)(pin)價格上漲，影響(xiang)了(le)(le)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家的(de)(de)(de)食品(pin)(pin)安全(quan)戰略(lve)，還有(you)(you)就(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)是(shi)農產(chan)(chan)品(pin)(pin)作為生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)物(wu)(wu)燃料的(de)(de)(de)原(yuan)(yuan)料，本(ben)身也占(zhan)用了(le)(le)耕地，消耗(hao)資(zi)(zi)源大(da)(da)，產(chan)(chan)出效(xiao)率低，而且燃燒后仍(reng)然產(chan)(chan)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)二(er)氧(yang)化碳等溫室氣體(ti)，如印(yin)度尼西(xi)亞(ya)為了(le)(le)大(da)(da)面積(ji)種植棕(zong)櫚油(you)(you)，就(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)砍伐了(le)(le)大(da)(da)量的(de)(de)(de)原(yuan)(yuan)始(shi)森林，這本(ben)身就(jiu)(jiu)(jiu)是(shi)對環境(jing)的(de)(de)(de)迫(po)害(hai)，因(yin)此農產(chan)(chan)品(pin)(pin)用于生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)綠色能源，現(xian)在市場的(de)(de)(de)分歧相當大(da)(da)。據了(le)(le)解，全(quan)球的(de)(de)(de)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)物(wu)(wu)能源生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)大(da)(da)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)都(dou)是(shi)農產(chan)(chan)品(pin)(pin)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)大(da)(da)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)，如盛(sheng)產(chan)(chan)大(da)(da)豆的(de)(de)(de)美國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)，盛(sheng)產(chan)(chan)大(da)(da)豆、蔗糖的(de)(de)(de)巴西(xi)等南美國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家，全(quan)球棕(zong)櫚油(you)(you)主產(chan)(chan)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)印(yin)尼、馬(ma)來西(xi)亞(ya)等，由于手(shou)中(zhong)(zhong)有(you)(you)余糧(liang)，政府將手(shou)中(zhong)(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)庫存轉化為生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)物(wu)(wu)柴(chai)油(you)(you)，起到(dao)擴(kuo)大(da)(da)需求、降低庫存、支撐農產(chan)(chan)品(pin)(pin)價格的(de)(de)(de)作用。而中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)作為人口眾多的(de)(de)(de)糧(liang)食進口大(da)(da)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)，食品(pin)(pin)不(bu)僅是(shi)**經濟發展的(de)(de)(de)重要戰略(lve)物(wu)(wu)資(zi)(zi)，也是(shi)人民群眾.基(ji)本(ben)的(de)(de)(de)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)活(huo)資(zi)(zi)料，限(xian)于中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)情，政府難以(yi)推出以(yi)糧(liang)食為原(yuan)(yuan)料的(de)(de)(de)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)物(wu)(wu)能源刺激(ji)政策。

影(ying)響(xiang)生(sheng)(sheng)物(wu)柴油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)需(xu)求的因素主(zhu)要(yao)有(you)兩個(ge)，首先是原油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)價(jia)格波動的影(ying)響(xiang)，原油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)價(jia)格上漲給生(sheng)(sheng)物(wu)柴油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)創造(zao)利潤(run)空間，會刺激(ji)需(xu)求，反之會抑(yi)制(zhi)需(xu)求。以(yi)棕櫚(lv)油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)煉制(zhi)生(sheng)(sheng)物(wu)柴油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)為(wei)例，棕櫚(lv)油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)的成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)占生(sheng)(sheng)物(wu)柴油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)80%以(yi)上，以(yi)近期棕櫚(lv)油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)現貨(huo)價(jia)5700元(yuan)/噸計算，產出的生(sheng)(sheng)物(wu)柴油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)約(yue)在7125元(yuan)/噸，而(er)2017年6月23日廣東0號柴油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)是5.96元(yuan)/升，約(yue)是7009元(yuan)/噸，生(sheng)(sheng)物(wu)柴油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)還略有(you)超出，根(gen)本(ben)(ben)沒有(you)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)優(you)勢(shi)，而(er)且(qie)由(you)于(yu)(yu)國(guo)內生(sheng)(sheng)物(wu)柴油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)主(zhu)要(yao)源自廢品油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)，所以(yi)在國(guo)內只有(you)油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)脂(zhi)(zhi)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)低于(yu)(yu)廢品油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)時才能真正有(you)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)優(you)勢(shi)，從(cong)而(er)刺激(ji)需(xu)求。由(you)于(yu)(yu)近期全(quan)球(qiu)原油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)在40多(duo)美(mei)元(yuan)波動，原油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)價(jia)格偏低，生(sheng)(sheng)物(wu)柴油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)需(xu)求很難成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)為(wei)影(ying)響(xiang)油(you)(you)(you)(you)(you)脂(zhi)(zhi)價(jia)格的關鍵因素。

第(di)二個因素是(shi)政策因素，包括(kuo)主要生產大國(guo)推(tui)出的(de)(de)生物(wu)(wu)能源刺激政策和主要消(xiao)費(fei)大國(guo)的(de)(de)相關政策，如(ru)2008年(nian)馬來西亞(ya)政府宣布了“B10生物(wu)(wu)柴(chai)油強制摻混的(de)(de)計劃”，歐洲的(de)(de)生物(wu)(wu)柴(chai)油使用(yong)量占全(quan)球80%，2013年(nian)歐盟指控印尼(ni)傾銷棕櫚油，導致印尼(ni)生物(wu)(wu)柴(chai)油出口劇降。政策的(de)(de)推(tui)出短期(qi)(qi)會(hui)在心理上(shang)影響市場(chang)中(zhong)的(de)(de)投資(zi)者，長期(qi)(qi)看會(hui)影響供求關系，.終會(hui)改變庫(ku)存數(shu)據的(de)(de)變化，從(cong)而影響市場(chang)價格的(de)(de)漲(zhang)跌。（特(te)約撰稿(gao)人顧崴(wei)，文章來自農產品(pin)期(qi)(qi)貨(huo)網..原創）